Ben Hammersley – Today's change, tomorrow's work: the fundamental shifts… – LT16 Conference

good morning our keynote speaker today going back to this business of collaboration the internet and everything else is somebody who said Dom just introduced me as a futurist which is a bit like saying I’d know Marshall Goldsmith is a coach who in fact ham speed of world’s leading coach then Hamersley has got a wide ranging CV I’m going to pick some stuff out of it and get him on the stage fellow of the Robert Schuman school for Advanced Studies at European University Institute editor and largely still at large at Wired magazine for the UK member of the European Commission high-level expert group on media freedom non-resident fellow of the Brookings Institution and also of course a futurist he’s going to take us through the future work and how it’s going to affect us who’s in charge ladies and gentlemen please welcome Ben Hamersley good morning everybody my name is Ben Hammersley I am as I said many things but I’m a mostly a futurist so my job is to travel the world and to explain to people large groups whether that’s groups like yourselves or governments or militaries around the world about the way that the world is is changing sometimes I talk about this is that I try and live a couple of years in the future and then come back and tell you all about it the phrase that comes to mind is a phrase from the novelist William Gibson who said the future is already here it’s just not evenly distributed we’re living through a time of immense change and that change is happening at different rates in different places and so what I’m going to try and talk about this morning is is what’s happening at the extremes of this change so things some some of these things you will have seen some of these things you were about to see some of them will all happen to you in the next few years but the rest assured that everything I’m going to talk about today is already happening is stuff that is is actively changing the world today this is a tweet that I found a couple of years ago that I think really sums up the way that the world is at the moment it’s just really weird how many of you noticed that right you know like certainly over the past couple of years through modern technology the world has got very strange as this guy sits here last night my mate asked to use a USB port to charge a cigarette but I was using it to charge my book but the future is stupid and the reason the future is stupid for is the future stupid for many reasons but one of those reasons is that people like myself futurists and technologists are sort of given the job of envisaging things and then people engineers go away and make that thing and a lot of futurists we we make our predictions about the future based on we just make it up not really based on anything we just we do what’s called a rectal approximation and I love that phrase and we do a rectal approximation and then engineers go where make it up I’m not going to do that today instead I’m going to base what I’m gonna say on some fundamental axioms about the future I like to think that if you can understand these three things you’ll really understand your life for the past 20 years in your lives for the rest of your life there are three major rules that are controlling the economy and the world at the moment what we call Moore’s Law Metcalfe’s law and and the effects of market penetration I’ll go through these very very quickly Moore’s law it was a man called Gordon Moore he was the co-founder of Intel until the people who make the computer chips right and in 1962 he was looking at the sales brochures that Intel were putting out for these little integrated circuits that they were making and he realized that there was an interesting pattern that had been happening that roughly every year for the same amount of money the number of components on one of their integrated circuits would double he wrote this down as a memo through his fellow engineers and they sort of ignored it really they filed it away but ten years later they looked this again and they foul this pattern continued to be true that roughly every year for the same amount of money the number of components on a microchip would double and this was restated as saying that computing power for the same price doubles every year it was true in the 1970s it was true in the 80s 90s the 2000s it’s true today we think it will continue to be true for

silicon chips for at least another 20 years this has a fundamental effect on everybody’s lives since the 60s it’s the first time in human history that we’ve had a tool or a class of tools which doubles in capability every year you know we swords didn’t get twice as sharp every year right horses didn’t get twice as fast every year but digital technology through this observation of Moore’s law has been shown to get twice as powerful for the same price every year now the reason for this is because we use digital technology to make the next generation of digital technologies we use today’s computers to design tomorrow’s computers and so you get this sort of buildup of of capability you know you don’t use a sword to make another sword right you don’t use that you okay you use a horse to make another horse that’s true but but after a while right they just don’t get any faster whereas computers do they get twice as fast every year now this has a huge effect both in the short term and the long term in the short term Moore’s law means that every September or so the CEO of Apple will come up on stage like this in San Francisco and immediately make your phone the iPhone 7 you are bollocks right okay the other thing that’s in the short term in the long term you start to realize that over say a 20-year career my game I work with that one since I was doing some work for the Foreign Office and we were talking about the the lifespan of a diplomat and most people join the Foreign Office straight out of university and if they’re any good they’ll be an ambassador in their sort of mid early to mid 40s and so there’s a sort of 20-year career before you become you get the hat with a big feather in it right so if you think of that sort of early stage of your career for some of you or the majority of your career for some of you the computer that you had on your desk when you start the job is approximately 300 thousand times more powerful on the day that you become an ambassador or the day that you reach middle age or senior management or whatever this doubling and doubling of Paris an exponential growth of capability and that exponential growth the capability has some fundamental ramifications that we’ll get to in a moment the next one is what is what’s called Metcalfe’s law Bob Metcalfe was the guy who invented Ethernet which is lean at the wired in in network connections that some of you might have had him in offices and he said that the power of a network is equal to the is equal increases geometrically with a number of people in that network so for every additional person or every additional thing in a network it gets geometrically more powerful and this is particularly important when you start to look at the open social networks of learners or people of shared interests for every additional person that you add to it a radition ‘el bit of knowledge you add to it it gets geometrically more powerful and then we have this realization about market penetration which is the phenomenon over the last 10 years or so over the fact that pretty much every adult on the planet has a smartphone certainly every teenager so in the past 10 years not only if we had this doubling and doubling and doubling and doubling and doubling and doubling again of power of computer computational technology not only if we had this enormous increase in the number of people who have general-purpose computing technology but when you add all that together the value of that combined network has gone up by this enormous inconceivable number so over the past 10 years or so we’ve had this huge change in society that’s really happening all the time now what comes from this well I think 2016 is going to be the tipping point for a major technology that major technologies artificial intelligence now we used to think of artificial intelligence as being something like this this is the how from the film 2001 and the olden days we used to think of artificial intelligence exactly like this there’s a sort of singular piece of technology that you would have you know one of in your office and after a while it would try to kill you that was well it’s still

true to a certain extent but but then a few years ago artificial intelligence started to look like this this is a screenshot from the American TV game show Jeopardy from about four years ago and in the middle there as you can see the the boxy looking gentleman that is IBM’s supercomputer called Watson actually the supercomputer itself was so that’s just the screen with the IBM’s logo on it and it had a little thing that could press the buzzer and then it cable that went out backstage and backstage there were sort of two rooms really sort of huge porta cabins of the hardware that ran this big supercomputer now this was absolutely astounding because what it could do is it could listen to the quizmaster give the questions it could then go out to the internet into its internal databases it could it could process the audio work out what the question was go out to its to its database of fats and then come back press the buzzer and answer the question correctly playing against existing champions of jeopardy this guy here is called Ken Jennings he was um he was the best Jeopardy player ever and he was beaten quite solidly by IBM’s Watson supercomputer now at the time this was a major breakthrough in AI the fact that it could understand English understand a question the fact that it could go out to the internet and find the answers of that question and then come back and tell you the answers of that question in real time was astounding and it they won quite a few million dollars in prize money on this game show the Watson supercomputer cost about a hundred million dollars this is the Amazon echo it costs 50 quid they’re shipping this right now it’s the size of a Pringles can I have one in my kitchen it does exactly the same thing if you get the opportunity I think they’re about to start selling them in the UK if you get the opportunity to buy one of these you should definitely buy one they’re super cool it’s Siri but for your house it’s very cool basically you have it’s at its it’s like the size of a Pringles cancer that so you know it’s like this big eyesore sits there in the kitchen and it’s got a microphone that’s really good at hearing your voice and so it’s constantly listening to you and you can say it’s called a lexer you say hey Alexa and it’s the blue light on the top lights up because Alexa we say play BBC Radio thought you have to speak to it like play BBC Radio 4 and radio 4 comes on it’s very good things you say Alexa stop it stops and then you say Alexa resumed and it stops playing it and then you can say Alexa add the corn flakes to my shopping list and it says I’ve added corn flakes to your shopping it’s super awesome and then you get and then on your shopping list on an app on your phone you can see it says call folks and then if you’ve if you’ve turned on you can say Alexa order me corn flakes and if you’ve got one click turned on and I live in Los Angeles where we have where Amazon deliver groceries and they also deliver within the hour so you can say Alexa order water corn flakes and it goes I’ve ordered your corn flakes and then the doorbell rings like half an hour later and a dude hands you complex it’s kind of Awesome now why do I talk about this well apart from the fact that it’s pretty awesome is that the technology in this which is like I say it’s 50 quid that was in prime is just like this because at the same time you can say to it Alexa what’s the capital of France and it goes out and it finds three lines or two you could say what’s the weather in London and you can tell it’s raining and you can go haha i live in california it’s cool right and so we start to have this realization that in today in 2016 we can start living with artificial intelligences in a really fundamental way now why am i selling this well this is the point this stuff is basically free it’s 50 quid but 50 quid is because it’s a plastic box with a microphone in it but the the smarts are out on the internet there’s some in the cloud right and so this sort of stuff gets cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and okay today it’s fifty quid because it’s for early adopters but in five years time everything will have this in it this sort of technology now of course many of you will be completely freaked out by the idea of Amazon having a microphone in your house that’s listening to you the entire time and if you watch the TV adverts that they have on American television and you watch them on YouTube one of the use cases is that the the adverts who can have this family that’s living with about four of

the things and there’s one in the kitchen and there’s one in the living room and then there’s one in the bedroom and you’re like I don’t want an always-on microphone in the bedroom reporting back to Amazon what I’m saying it’s not good super creepy but well I can’t see myself having and having an Amazon echo in the bedroom I can certainly see myself having one of these in the boardroom or in the office having a permanently listening digital assistant that can help me out at all times is some pretty cool now to have that happen we need to have a higher grade for it to be really so at the moment you can understand like simple things like add corn flakes to my shopping list and play a radio forum what’s the weather like and things like that but what we really need is some sort of really high-end general-purpose aí and aí that can start to solve problems for us now that used to be considered to be pretty much impossible you could teach things speech recognition but you couldn’t teach it problem solving obviously of course that’s no longer the case last week Google announced that they have created an artificial intelligence which could play the game of Go Go is chess on steroids basically from a computational point of view it was always considered to be the thing we’ve had a ice that can play chess for quite a long time if you remember 20 30 years ago IBM made a supercomputer that could beat Garry Kasparov and that was considered to be the end of humanity is the primary species on the planet because we now had a supercomputer that could play chess better than anybody but at the same time we said well chest is actually really a bit of a mickey mouse game go is the really difficult one there’s no way computers can be the gold champion until last week when they did now deep mine to a part of Google who made this AI that plays go they’re based in London by the way they didn’t make a go playing AI what they did is they made an AI that could learn how to play go and then they just let it learn they have another AI that plays video games perfectly and what they do is they is they give it the video game to play and they say your only task is to make a mr score a house is to score as many points as you possibly can it doesn’t tell it anything else about the game and then they let it play the game hundreds of thousands of times and very very very rapidly the AI will learn how to maximize its scoring by randomly mashing the buttons and that’s for about a day what they found is these areas can play pac-man or something like that perfectly because they learn how to solve the problem and the first one they have to solve is what is the game I’m playing and this is what they’ve done here they’ve created an AI which is all they taught it was how to learn and then it learnt the most complex board game there is and now beats humans in it which was considered to be impossible so we have this general-purpose AI starting to arrive now in the present now playing go is a really difficult thing to do and if you can if you can teach an AI to learn how to do that you can teach you to do lots of all sorts of interesting things the most difficult thing that many of you will find to do in your lives is arranging meetings way more difficult than go some of you might say well no you know that sort of meeting chess that you play like I’d like to have a coffee I would like to have a coffee too okay we were we’ve agreed that good are you free on Wednesday oh no I’m free on Thursday well I’m not free on Thursday about Tuesday I’ll choose ok sure and then you go back to this was later that there’s a backwards and forwards thing and you have secretaries and meeting arrangers and there’s a hole as a whole so industry of personal assistants who are dedicated humans that are dedicated to solving that problem of arranging meetings very very hard until of course this year where a me a text or a I’ve started to exist a me is a single purpose artificial intelligence that you access through email and if you have an account with Amy there’s a waiting list at the moment but it’s free if you get some top of the waiting list all you do is you start to have an email something if I want to have a coffee with dawn for example I will email you and I say we should have a coffee or a good idea let me introduce you to my friend Amy ceci Amy in and then I back out of the conversation and Amy pops up and says I’m coffee and you and Amy will have a conversation and you will think Amy is a real person because Amy will talk to you in English and will be able to understand your typing and all that sort of stuff and your spelling and everything right and at the end of it you will come to a negotiated agreement with Amy and then Amy will send me a meeting invitation and at no point will you realize that Amy’s in fact an

artificial intelligence the technology is to solve these sorts of simple problems is already here so we’re still looking to see this sort of interesting issue of the technology is increasing at such a rate that we’ve reached the tipping point where it’s good enough now to solve a AI problems that are actually in the real world and we starting to realize that there are many jobs which we previously thought was solely for humans to do because it would be really difficult to get computers to be able to do them because they require that sort of creative thinking like arranging a coffee date is actually quite difficult but we’ve now realised that we now have a eyes that can do that and so there is this issue today there’s a whole raft of professions which are in deeply threatened by AI when I was a teenager growing up in in Leicester my parents used to sit me in front of the television for the news and they would show me the news stories of the car plants in in Derby you know nearby closing down because the robots were coming in and so lots of the mechanics and so on being laid at the car workers we know we’re being laid off because they didn’t we don’t you don’t need a human welder anymore because you’ve got robots that can do it and so they would remember that sort of that whole industrialization period right and so they would sit me down and they would say like you need to go through University and you need to get a proper job in a proper profession doing something where you can’t be replaced by a robot should be a doctor or a lawyer or an accountant that was terrible advice because it turns out that all three of those things are now robots um they’re quite a few companies now that do accounts through artificial intelligences they sort of dress them up by having a human being pretend that they’re doing your accounts but it’s mostly done by a eyes IBM’s Watson after it started Evert stopped being a contestant on game shows one of the things they did was they started feeding it medical textbooks training it to be a doctor and last year which was the last time they spoke about it in public they said that Watson was now a good diagnostician as a final year medical student now because computing power doubles every year due to Moore’s law we can pretty much easily say that within the next few years Watson will be as good a diagnostician as a first-year real doctor or a GP which means that in ten years time your regular family doctor will be a 99-cent app on your iPhone 15 because there’s this realization that actually if you can break the job down into an algorithm if you can break it down into a big flow chart then AIS are really really good at it and MIT sir to a certain degree turns out to be a really big flowchart is the patient alive or dead if dead stop like and you just work your way down right and so that’s quite easy to train an AI to do but in the olden days we just have to train it by giving it every one of those junctions in that tree diagram but now through these general-purpose a eyes we can train them to work out how that system works by giving it all of these textbooks and having it sort of decode medicine and create its own tree diagrams in law lore is even more in is even more destroyed by our eyes if you speak to corporate lawyers in the u.s. at the moment that you’ll find that there is a huge crisis amongst corporate law because it’s completely destroyed the the structure of the legal profession has been completely destroyed in the olden days you would go to I said the olden days like two years ago right in the olden days you would go to law school and you’ll get into huge amounts of debt Harvard Law School you end up with something like a quarter of a million dollars in debt and then you would leave and you would go into a big law corporate law firm as a junior associate and a junior associate is effectively they’re taken away and they’re locked in a basement for two years and they do what’s called document discovery document discovery is where you’ll have a big case say like a big fraud case and they’ll have gone into they’ll have raided they’ll have raided the bank or wherever it is that’s that’s being accused of this crime and they grab all of the documents you know you’ve seen those pictures of the cardboard boxes being carried out of offices during the

financial crisis and stuff know what they do is they put those in basements and then they fill it with junior associates first year out of law school and those junior associates go through the paperwork looking for naughty things like looking for evidence and at the end of those two years the ones that are still left alive are let out and promoted and it’s sort of a hazing ritual for junior lawyers right now it turns out that two things happen the first is that all of that sort of corporate communication all of those sort of fraud evidence and stuff moved on to electric platforms there’s no paperwork anymore it’s all email servers so it’s increasingly rare to see people carrying boxes of documents out of buildings instead what you see is like one dude with an email server and that’s billions of documents so that’s the first thing the second thing was that we realized that if it’s an electronic form already what you don’t want to do is print it out and then have junior lawyers look at it what you want to do instead is just build an artificial intelligence and have that AI and look through all that document all that documentation looking for evidence of law breaking and so that’s what people have done so you now have the e-discovery industry which a whole raft of companies who are building artificial intelligent lawyer BOTS which go through this stuff for you and what that has created is huge crisis within the legal industry because there’s nothing for junior lawyers to do anymore law firms the senior guys are all cool cuz they’ve got the difficult thinkI stuff to do but the grunt work that you have to do traditionally in the first few years of your leave of your legal profession is no longer there it’s being done by a eyes and as the a eyes gets stronger and stronger and more and more smart the boundary of the stuff that they can do rises up through the corporate hierarchy so today it’s the junior lawyers losing their work next it’ll be the middle ones in a decade to be the high ones and so on and so on so we’re starting to see this encroachment of these general-purpose AIS and it’s starting to look on to you know middle-class jobs now of course a lot of what I’m talking about here sounds radically sciency fictiony right like the Google self-driving car Google make amazing software but they can’t style a car for I mean as you can see all right and you see you look at it so we hear about the Google self-driving car and you’re like yes yes a self-driving car yeah it’s very good Google and there’s no way that anybody’s gonna buy one of those things look at it and besides the first time it rains or whatever and you know it becomes a sort of science fictiony story of something that one day will appear in the future this is the tesla p90d yes model s p90d I am a drove one of these last week it was awesome they’ve got a commission from Esquire magazine to to write an article about the chief designer of Tesla and say I live in LA and Tesla is up in near San Francisco and so usually I fly it’s about a five-hour drive and I usually I would fly up there but I’ve never driven a Tesla before so I was like get my borrow one and they’re like yeah totally so they lent me one and they let me the really fast one it’s really really fast that’s not 16 2.6 seconds it’s trick it’s really really fast okay anyway I’ll tell you about that later it’s really quick but the cool thing about this is that you can buy these now there are they’re about 100 grand a hundred dollars a hundred thousand dollars about 70 grand and the cool thing about this is that last October they upgraded the software in them and so when you’re driving along quite quickly it has cameras all the way in here and it can see the road in front of it and when you’re driving down the motorway the dashboard gives you the option and if you accept the option by flicking the switch you could take your hands off the wheel and your feet off the pedals and it will drive for you right it stays in lane for you and it will also stay a certain distance back from the car in front of you so you can say as I did the other day I’d like to go to 85 miles an hour please that way and then you take your hands off the in I drove for about 200 miles with with my hands off the way on my feet off the pedals at 85 miles an hour the car drives itself it’s basically an artificial intelligence with a rocket strapped to the bottom of it in an armchair all right now that’s pretty cool but what was super cool about it was I picked this up on the Tuesday and I drove it around around my neighborhood and took

my wife and we went we did this stopping and waiting for everything to clear then right bouncing around my house on the Tuesday the Wednesday morning I woke up to drive up to San Francisco and I got into the car and the bond was this huge screen and it said software update and overnight it had learned to parallel park I have the car on the Tuesday it cannot park itself on the Wednesday it could park itself because one of the other realizations is that when everything is digital you can give it new capabilities just by changing the code that runs it these things are learning my old car doesn’t learn right it doesn’t get any better it just sits there feeling sorry for itself that it’s not a Tesla right I feel sorry for it that it’s not a totally it was a terrible thing I to give a thing back but the Tesla because it’s a digital thing because it’s subject to Moore’s law and all these sorts of things I’m a Tuesday it’s a regular car that goes like a rocket on the Wednesday it’s a regular car goes like a rocket and that can park itself now this creates all sorts of real problems in this in society because it creates this whole new class of people meat puppets some of you in this room may well be meat puppets some of you may know meat puppets some of you may be married to a meat puppet some of you have achieved meat puppetry some of you have meat puppets thrust upon you a meat puppet is somebody who is keeping the seat warm waiting for the AI to take over their job and there is a whole class of employment right now which is a meat puppet job just in the self-driving car realm it’s pretty obvious that taxi drivers for example are meat puppets uber right the app that you can order a taxi from right which has been valued at tens of billions of dollars for what effective these are sort of souped-up radio cabs the reason it’s worth so much money is that they’re not really a cab firm they are a dispatching system for robots it’s just that we haven’t replaced the hue yet the uber driver is a meat puppet for the self-driving car and as soon as the self-driving car comes to market which is in the next few years next 24 months as soon as that comes to market uber will drop their human in their human contractors as fast as they possibly can now I actually just as just as a as an aside I don’t think that self-driving vehicles are really anything to do with this sort of thing I mean if you do lots and lots of mileage a self-driving car that’ll drive itself up the m1 it’s pretty awesome but lots of people actually quite like driving as a physical act and certainly in the States it’s a it’s a very symbolic and metaphorical activist of political values of freedom and all that sort of stuff and it’s all it’s all tied in with self identity and so on self-driving cars that’s it that’s one thing self-driving trucks self-driving buses well there’s really big things they will be self-driving as soon as as soon as they possibly can be as soon as there is a self-driving truck which is demonstrably 1% safer than a human driven truck human driven trucks will not be allowed in inner cities anymore there isn’t a politician in the world who couldn’t stop that from happening as soon as it was demonstrable that a self-driving truck was going to kill one fewer bicyclist in London and so if you’re in the haulage business you’re because this is going to happen very soon and so your job in the L&D world is to work out really which industries are sort of meat puppet of industries and to help them deal with that transition now of course as a futurist my job is to stand up here on stage and say like you know by 11 o’clock the South this morning you know the machines are going to take over and like and as we present you this idea that this is inevitable that’s all going to happen all this same time there’s going to be this huge sort of social revolution it’s gonna happen like right and of course is not true there’s always this objection and

this objection is entirely valid that all of these scenarios that junior lawyers going to be put out of business that that most doctors are going to be a eyes that secretaries have no longer have a position role in the world because meetings can be arranged way you know that trucks will be self driven all these sorts of things all these that there’s a dominant narrative of those sooner that that is going to happen to everybody all at the same time and it’s gonna be devastating of course it’s it’s not really true this is a sort of change that happens over a generation or two and for some of you for many of you and for many regions in this country and many regions around the world it’ll never happen you know you go certain bits of the UK they’re still living in 1956 and it’s fine you know so you can if you want right now I choose to take solace in the fact that you’ve probably got a 20 year runway and life will get more and more boring and less and less lucrative but you could probably everybody in this room probably get to retirement before you really have to deal with this stuff if you want if you want but these sorts of technological changes that I’m talking about are happening somewhere on the planet right now and Moore’s Law has this horrible sort of trap I call it the Kodak problem Kodak invented the digital camera in 1978 and at the same time as they invented the digital camera they also were making Kodachrome which is the most beautiful photographic film in the world Paul Simon wrote a song about Caracara it’s gorgeous takes beautiful photographs and so the Board of Kodak looked at this digital camera that they’ve made that was a naught point 1 megapixel camera it took pictures that are like a chess board and it recorded them to audio cassette tape and it took seven minutes to save a single photograph it was rubbish and they compared it with Kodachrome which they made which was amazing and they said look we make coke rome is beautiful and there’s this thing called digital photography which is patently so we’re going to north invest any money in the digital thing the day that Kodak went bankrupt about 30 years later was the day that Instagram which is an app as you know that takes pictures to make it look as if it’s taken on old Kodak film with soared to Facebook for 800 million dollars and had at the time eight employees Kodak made a fundamental error in not realizing the implications of Moore’s law and the implication of Moore’s law is that if it exists digitally even if it’s not very good it will inevitably and eventually become amazing simply through that sort of pseudo natural process of the doubling and doubling and doubling of computing power so if you see any digital threats to your position or to the position of your clients but you dismiss it as being rubbish today you have to remember that that threat will be amazing and deeply threatening eventually it might not happen overnight but it will happen and you have to make the personal choices to work out precisely how much runway you’ve got left before it kills you now these sorts of sociological changes happen at many levels one of the levels that happens that is a very intimate one this has been really the I think one of the most fundamental changes has happened over the past few years this realization that technology is not only not being a desk wasting these become incredibly intimate thing everybody here I’m sure has this smartphone right or a law to some of you might have three some of you got a blackberry answer didn’t wanna show it but right so what we’ve realized over the past few years is that if you have a smartphone there’s been three major studies into this the last one was from Harvard and they they showed that if you’ve had a smartphone for more than a year everybody in this room right you had a smartphone for more than a year ninety

eight percent of you so again everybody in this room will have felt your phone vibrating in your pocket when it wasn’t it’s called phantom vibration syndrome so think it’s a genuine thing right you know you’re walking on your own oh it’s nice one the reason is because once you’ve had a phone for more than about a year then it fundamentally changes the the structure of your brain right now everybody in this room is has a part of your brain right here at the back which is thinking the same fall over and over and over again all of you all of you right now a little voice in the back of your head is very quiet but if you listen to it you can you can you can hear it it’s just saying the same thing is it ringing is it ringing oh I hope it’s on silent is it ringing is it ringing is it ringing is it ring constantly throughout the day is it ringing is it ringing should I check Twitter is it ringing do I have email is it ringing is entering and every source dim because it’s a biological thing it goes wrong and see you go is it ringing ringing its ringing oh no no so 98% of you have felt that in your in your pocket 46% of you so ever all of you guys not you not all of you know you will have statistically speaking felt your phone vibrating in your pocket when you are holding it in your hand phantom vibration syndrome genuine thing right what this goes to show us is that these things are increasingly fundamentally part of our psyche and that we’re starting to become deeply entwined with this technology in a way that we were never were before now this starts to have really deep implications for the way that we start to interact with each other because we’re all connected through these technologies and because these technologies are deeply embedded within our psyche and within our biology now we’re starting to live in a world where these technologies fundamentally affect the way we interact now let me give you a good example of this Apple watch watch many of you will have an Apple watch some of many others of you will have another sort of Fitbit or something like that around your wrist if you’ve got the latest one if you have the Apple watch then they take your heart rate all the time now we’re going to get rich by the end of this year because I mean I’m now going to explain through an app we’re going to build and if it doesn’t cut if somebody else doesn’t do this for realsies the end of this year we’re going to are going to make so much money right here’s a thing your Apple watch this is going to happen I can guarantee your Apple watch or any other SmartWatch knows who you are because it’s your watch right it knows where you are because it has access to GPS and all those things and it knows what you’re doing because has access to your calendar and your work data it knows what who are doing it with because Isaac says to your contacts and has access to things like LinkedIn right and it also knows your physiological state as your heartbeat now we know through science that when you are psychologically aroused when you’re with somebody for example you find incredibly irritating your heart rate goes up so it’s a trivial piece of technology to connect all those things together to create the world’s first artificial intelligent crowdsource wearable technology detector it’s 11 o’clock I’m in a meeting with Bob you know you know my heart rate is going up either I find Bob incredibly attractive or a bit of a dick I shall I shall upload that’s that that’s statistic up to LinkedIn where we’ll be joined by many other statistics from other people who’ve had a meeting with Bob and we will realize in on average anybody who spends more than 10 minutes with Bob their heart rate goes up by 20 beats a minute you should be aware of this anybody else who goes to have a meeting with Bob now that that pushing the boundaries of technology and intimacy in machine learning and crowdsourcing of that data is something that is absolutely inevitable the fact that I can explain it to you in like three sentences means that it’s definitely going to happen which brings us onto this like this other trend that is starting to come through with all these technologies which is about contextual advice the big deal for 2016 is going to be technology which gives you the contextual advice it tells you things that you need to know before you know you need to know it whether it is you’re about to have a meeting with Bob you should be aware of

this thing about Bob which is a very easy thing to do or you’re in a new place in a new town here’s a good restaurant that we think you might like all those sorts of things and Apple have spoken about this this is a photograph from the last keynote that they gave it’s talking about Siri being a proactive assistant that’s going to start kicking in over the rest of this year Google now is going to be much more proactive all of these technologies that you have in your pocket already I’m going to start to be more and more proactive now that proactiveness is very very important but it starts to and uses this machine learning to start to be useful for you and that is something which is being used in a cross industry this is a the first prototype of the Amazon drone they don’t look like this anymore but Amazon are definitely doing this assessing here in the UK they’re testing it in Holland and they testing it in Canada they tested it already in Australia Amazon are definitely going to do drone delivery definitely they’re already advertising for pilots so like I say when I eat when I’m sat in my kitchen and I’ve run out of cornflakes and I tell Alexa that I want more cornflakes I have a little balcony within the next 24 months probably it won’t be a dude in a van giving me I thinks but it’ll be a drone that comes in and drops it off and flies away again I wish I was kidding but no it’s definitely happening it is happening right now one of the things that they’ve discussed about the fact that this is happening and the fact that you can have within the hour or same-day delivery in London and other major cities it’s because their supply chain is artificially intelligent their system is so complex now that they’ve realized something very very interesting they know from studying the way that people use their website millions of transactions every day millions and millions and millions of browsing sessions every day they know ways of telling how likely you are to buy a thing if you keep going back to that page if you linger on that page if you move your mouse in a particular way if you go away and come back and go and come back all these things these all add up to a certain score and when that score goes above a certain level then they know that you’re 90 percent or 95 percent likely to buy that thing it’s been pretty well proven that they know you better than yourself through these sort of subconscious cues now Amazon’s delivery network is very complex and they they keep making these promises about how quickly they can deliver things to you so what they’ve realised is that it’s cheaper and easier for them to start to deliver something when there are more than a certain amount sure you’re going to buy it even if you haven’t pressed the Buy button yet if you spend a lot of time on Amazon chances are you have triggered the liveries of stuff that you eventually didn’t bother ordering but if there is absolutely the chances are that many things that you bought was being delivered to you before you bought it for examines Amazon knows you better than you do and that’s why these sorts of drone delivery systems will work because they’ll dispatch the drone before you order it it knows that I want corn flakes before I ask it for the corn flakes and so the cornflakes arrived really quickly and I think Anderson’s amazing and it turns out that’s cheaper for them to do then they’re not and the whole world is filling up with these sorts of systems this symbiosis of complex delivery systems artificial intelligence human behavior code etc etcetera etcetera and so the really interesting jobs are the future the skills that we’re going to need in the future are these symbiosis with these systems in this ease with complexity I can’t tell you really what the future is going to be like past about three years out anybody who gives more than five or ten-year predictions is totally bullshitting completely there’s no way we can make sensible predictions past about three years because more lore is so weird I mean think back 10 years ago or 12 years ago if you go back 12 years we didn’t have the iPhone we don’t have the iPad we’ve now Facebook we didn’t have twitter we didn’t have YouTube we didn’t have Netflix with enough Hulu like all like the basis of Mon Society didn’t exist 12 years ago so if you want a 20 year prediction I could just say anything it was it’s gonna be wrong but it’ll be as equally as wrong as anybody else but what we can say is we say that you’re definitely going to need these skills and so the real challenge we have is trying to understand what are the upcoming fundamental changes to this to the world that we know it today so that we can start one

stand those systems and start to become symbiotic with them now one of the ways you can do that as a futurist is to look at what kids are up to I’ve never typed it in I really want to type it in a find out what I want those of you didn’t go this this is a file the Christmas obviously where they just give the URL for their Amazon wish this Amazon don’t know whether you’ve been naughty or nice that’s Google’s problem that’s so much closer to the truth so we have this fundamental shift in the way that the culture is working – right we have to start to acknowledge this this is a this is a thing I show this to a movie studios and TV companies quite a lot because it’s always entertaining to hear they’re swearing this is the most successful movie star in the world it’s a woman called Disney collector if you’ve got four year old kids you will notice new collector if you don’t you have never heard of this person Disney collector is a is a Latino woman living somewhere in Miami we think we don’t know we know she’s latina from her accent we know she’s a woman from her accent and from her very work nicely done hands she was a beautiful manicure and she makes these videos like once a week or so which is the unboxing video so they’re her hands reaching into the frame like this and taking a toy usually a Disney toy and unboxing it I’m talking very softly about the toy here is the Princess Elsa play-doh set and I’m just taking it out of the box now and I’m playing with it it’s um it’s kind of weird the nine-minute 12 second movie that she made about the play-doh Sparkle Princess Ariel Elsa and Anna friendly this is hair they don’t if you can see this ninety nine million six hundred thirty eight thousand three hundred seventy nine views the least popular video of it when I took this shot will be the other month which is from the Lightning McQueen you know the Pixar movie that nobody watched whatever though that is right lunchbox cars thank you guys I am forty nine million views a disappointing weeks work for her massive shift in culture right anybody under the age of ten she’s a massive star and everybody over the age of ten this is bewildering and these people are going to enter the workforce in ten years time or fifteen years time and in fifteen years time the technology they’ll be watching these on and getting one nostalgic about that time they watch Disney Britain in tizzy collector the technology then will be three hundred thousand times more powerful there is no possible way we can make a we can make a sensible curriculum on what to teach these kids no way we there’s no way I could write a textbook to tell them how how what office work is going to be like in 20 years time we have no vocab you talk to these kids anymore not even just kids like adults too okay so everybody here kind of thinks themselves as learning right we’re all pre intelligent people and many of us possibly buy the Booker Prize winner say or like every every other year they’ll be like somebody interesting wins the Nobel Prizes issue and you go and buy the notebook you know buy their most popular book and leave it unread on the Shelf but hopefully it’ll get you laid right it’s ooh that’s kind of cool we read the book reviews and we think that like the best-selling books which sell maybe a hundred thousand copies or million copies if it’s Harry Potter or a big deal culturally so this is an app called there’s a screenshot from an app called pad what pad is a distribution mechanism for fanfiction fanfiction our story is written by people using existing characters from other cultural properties or sometimes real real-life people a lot of fanfiction is romantic or erotic in nature quite a good deal of it is pornographic in nature it’s also insanely popular this is a novel written by a noted author called British bombs mr. and mrs. bums had a daughter and called her British it is called PS I hate you in its stars the main character

is Harry Styles of One Direction I’m assured is a popular beat combo he’s a very popular man young Harry Harry is so popular that this semi erotic romantic novel about him has been read nineteen million nine hundred and seventy thousand seven hundred seventy two times when I took this screenshot I had half a million comments and this is one of thousands of titles on this on this service why am i showing you this well the point is to reinforce the fact that not only are we have all of these incredible systems coming up which are take which are threatening all of these jobs not only do you have these incredibly complex systems which are creating whole new social structures and business structures with pre-emptive delivery and drones and also stuff but also to show you that there is a whole vast swathe of a deeply complex socially embedded culture which is enabled by these technologies which is also part of the mix and it’s only by taking into account all of these things that we can actually have a genuine oversight of what is happening over the next five 10 15 20 years and as somebody whose job it is is to prepare people for the next 5 10 15 20 years you have to start to develop a view of what the hell is happening today and it turns out what’s happening today is super-weird so what are we gonna do well we’re starting to realize that actually the skills that we need to be teaching people are the sorts of things which cannot be done by computers we don’t want to make we don’t want to commit the kodak problem we don’t we look at the kodak mistake we don’t want to teach ourselves or teach others skills and and and roles which will be taken over by machines eventually you don’t want to just be keeping the meat puppet wall for a bit really you want to be teaching them human exclusive complex system cognitive capabilities giving them the tools which will enable them to do stuff which only humans can do and we need to work out what those are we do that by not paying attention to fancy technologies for example this year this is going to come out this is the microsoft hololens it’s super cool I’m going to have one of these absolutely it’s amazing right so goggles you put it on you immediately look really sad but what it does is it it gives you a video over over the top of your natural site and so you can play Minecraft for example where your Minecraft world is stretched out in front of you and I can be wearing a headset don’t we right has it he come into the room he will be on the other side of my castle and he will be able to see my castle from that side and I would see from this side we had to walk around it and we other playing Minecraft together and be super great and these are those would be on the front cover of t3 magazine you’ll be amazing and like people in NASA are starting to use it so that NASA scientists now still use this technology so they get the 3d scan from the NASA robots you know the robots that live on Mars and they can and right now planetary scientists can use these hololens to walk around mars and they can all stand around a rock and go point at it super cool but that’s not the future technology needs to be paying attention to that’s a toy the future technology needs to be paying attention to is understanding the fundamental changes that it makes the human condition we have to learn how to learn with this stuff all of these technologies are starting to give us superpowers I think that’s the only way we’re going through as a society get out of this issue of meat puppetry we’re going to realize them instead of a threat to us these AIS and so on we have to treat them as amazing tools to help us get more complex work done but we need to embrace these things and use them to give ourselves superpowers and in doing that that enables us to go through a business reinvention if you go to Silicon Valley I wouldn’t recommend it it’s a very dull place it’s like Brent Cross only for about a hundred miles with palm trees but nevertheless if you go to Silicon Valley and you talk to the people who are sort of innovating and disrupting industries what you find is that they are all doing the same thing which is they’re all looking at specific industries and saying if we were to do this thing today starting from scratch as if we didn’t know how to do it but

using all of our new stuff what would we do and when you do that you get Amazon instead of bookshops and you get you know Expedia instead of travel agents and so on you get a complete disruption of your existing industries and that legacy free reinvention is something is going to be happening for the next 20 years and so we need to learn how that works and so what does this mean for you what it means that we have to start to assess how we as individuals and how we as teachers and leaders can enable ourselves and others to think in this new way to take these new technologies that are available and use them to reinvent our industries as if from scratch and to treat them as superpowers rather than existential threats if you can do that then the next 20 years whatever is going to happen in the next 20 years will be one of great success if you can’t then as I say you’ve got 20 years after that you’ll be irrelevant but you all still had a nice time thank you very much then thank you I’m slightly abroad and bewildered befuddled but also fantastic taught and we don’t have time for Q&A unfortunately if I was going to ask you one question I’d put you on the spot okay everyone’s here they’re gonna be leaving and they’re gonna be going back to your office’s tomorrow Friday Albright and g’d up from the conference ready to go to work the world’s changing enormous Lee you know I’m going to say don’t you there’s one thing what is the one thing that they’re gonna do not a Ben doesn’t know this questions coming to him by the way nine o’clock tomorrow morning sitting out the office what we’re gonna do to get your hands around the future and put yourself in the driving seat call up Tesla nice and nicely um what’s the first thing you can do I think I think the mind shift change and the mind shift changes that is that legacy renewal idea that legacy free renewal idea which is to was to spend some time looking at everything you do in your life and work let’s choose a domain whatever it is right at work and go if we were to start doing this today from scratch right never mind what we’ve always done never mind what is the considered best practice no neither but if we were to do this from scratch today given all of the toys that we’ve got to play with all of the tools that we have how would we do this thing and that’s actually quite hard because the metacognition involved in that is very difficult to step back from that and it’s actually it’s a skill within itself but if you can do that then you will find that there are many there are many improvements you can make and there are many realizations that come from that if I just have 30 seconds to give you an example of this I haven’t got this load true but all of these technologies have ramifications and one of the ramifications that the internet we’ve known about them for forever is this death of distance idea that you can work from pretty much anywhere for a certain class of jobs there were a couple of websites and I can share them on Twitter or whatever later but there were a couple of websites now which realized that there are a whole class of people who went to business school in the u.s. got MBAs and then kind of noped out of the cut of the corporate world just like that and they will move to Bali it turns out so and so it says at that bar there are certain beaches in Bali that have more MBAs doing yoga than anything anywhere else in the world right and they still they need enough money to pay for their jaw sticks and so and their sarongs and mango lassis and stuff right and so there are quite a few websites now where you can we can rent a Harvard MBA by the hour now what this means is that if you have ever have anything that requires like an MBA level execution Bali is on the other side of the globe which means

that you can get stuff done overnight by people who are really good for about fifty quid an hour right and so I have had the same thing for the design industry as well so I had a major work done by major designers and by major MBA like senior level 20-year consultants and so on for about 200 quid where I’ve ordered it at five o’clock in the evening as I was leaving the office and when I arrived at o’clock the next morning it was done now that realization that the Internet has given me a superpower and the superpower is I can through the force of my will and typing get MBA level work done for me whilst I’m in the pub has given me a superpower and that’s enormous ly liberating as long as you don’t tell your client and so it’s it’s it’s a bit long example but it’s the idea of you have to look at everything you do and go is there a better way of doing this and when you go through that process it’s a long and arduous process but when you do then you realize that actually the world is much wider and much more interesting don’t wait until Friday morning because this has been says if something doesn’t happen when you sit down and think about it hard it’s a skill takes time it happens best when you discuss with other people guess what other people today take this challenge if I was going to reinvent LMD using all the stuff we’ve got forgetting the legacy that I started from oh HP’s floppy disks training in front of classroom flip charts how would I do it what would I do differently if we can start from scratch today please take the challenge okay get it on social media yeah we want to get as much of this circulated let’s start the buzz going then by the time you get to work on the Friday morning at 9 o’clock the works done you know what to do please it’s great challenge factors one last thing before we thank then and I said earlier that this book is four pounds it is four pounds in weight it’s slightly under 2 kilograms all right it’s 40 pounds in cost somebody had to be I say gone we’re getting a lot of people coming to the desk and you can fill in the gaps right ok so I told you now all right good we know how much the book costs we know what’s happen in the future one thing left to do please be back in a quarter past and let’s thank then throw fantastic in fact